Policy impact modeling
2026-04-26
11 min read
12 sources
Slovakia 2026: Fico, EU Funds Conditionality, and the Transit Cliff
Fico's third government has triggered Brussels's rule of law machinery, frozen defense at 1.7 percent of GDP, and absorbed the January 2025 closure of Russian gas transit. With EUR 6.4 billion in RRF and EUR 12.6 billion in cohesion exposed, Slovakia's 2026 fiscal path is a Brussels variable.
Robert Fico returned to the premiership on October 25, 2023, after Smer-SD won the September 30, 2023 election with 22.94 percent. The Smer, Hlas, SNS coalition holds 79 of 150 seats. In February 2024 the cabinet pushed Amendment 40/2024 abolishing the Special Prosecutor's Office, drawing a Commission Article 7.1 TEU dialogue and triggeri...